Johan: "A year ago I was talking about inflation, but now geopolitics is the most important thing. Half the world's population is going to the polls this year and that could be another gamechanger. In the Netherlands, we are experiencing slight growth despite wage inflation, a labour shortage and high financing costs. We are not doing too badly yet. And yes, there were a lot of bankruptcies in 2023, but you can nuance that because we came from low levels." Allianz Trade estimates that bankruptcies will rise by 31% in 2024. The turnaround will not come until 2025. There is cause for concern, companies are struggling to repay the corona loan for example, they are now running up against the deadline. Johan: "I am in favour of supporting SMEs and I worry about the dichotomy that exists in the Netherlands between SMEs and large companies. From the other side, among the repaying companies there are also zombie companies that wouldn't have made it anyway. Those are the first to fall over and you might wonder if that is a problem. You also have to prune a healthy beech hedge to keep it growing. And it also cannot be that the companies that have not done enough are rewarded as well as the good ones. The fact of the matter is that there are always a certain number of companies that go bankrupt."
Gros not insured
The world is too volatile not to hedge the risks. A good adviser is much needed. Credit insurers know the risks that internal surveys of companies do not show. The perception of many companies is still that they know their customers well. But I dispute that. The bulk of Dutch and Belgian companies are not insured, an unwise choice in today's world.
