Brexit is coming, but will it be hard or soft?

Published on 17/12/2019

The election results in the United Kingdom (UK) did not lie, on Thursday 12 December. Boris Johnson won handsomely and so Brexit is definitely going ahead. And whatever anyone thinks of it, for the economy, clarity is better than uncertainty.

After all, it was mostly uncertainty that led to many problems in recent years, especially among UK companies. Thus, the number of bankruptcies rose to record levels, more and more Britons found themselves unemployed and the pound devalued. But now - hurray! - everyone knows where they stand and we can start focusing on the future. A future without the UK in the European Union. As early as 31 January 2020, if it is up to Johnson. But actually that's when it really starts.

Transition phase

2020 will be dominated by negotiations between the UK and the EU. This is called the transition phase. During this phase, the UK follows EU rules but is not represented in Brussels. In many areas, appointments are made and trade agreements concluded. The EU will work hard to ensure that the UK will not use government subsidies to support British companies. Johnson has already indicated that he wants an equal deal similar to the one struck between the EU and Canada. Positive for firms exporting goods, but negative for service firms.

Firm negotiations

Either way, the UK will remain an important trading partner of the EU and a key ally within NATO. So it is in everyone's interest to find a workable solution. But that does not mean the game will not be played hard. The EU will go far to get back the money owed to the UK and will be firm at the negotiating table.

Hard or soft Brexit?

The question is who has the most strength for potty training after the intense past few years. But the question is also how much power Johnson wíll use. The hardliners of his Conservative Party do not think a hard Brexit is a problem. They prefer closer ties with the United States. Johnson himself, however, also wants to keep ties with the EU intact and go for a softer Brexit. After all, a hard Brexit has severely negative consequences for the UK economy. And that is of no use to anyone. Certainly not us Dutch.

Take action

How big an impact will it have on your business and what measures you can take? You can read more about this in our previous blog on Brexit. Do you still have questions after reading that article? Then we will be happy to answer them for you!

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